## Logistic regression¶

Binary outcomes

• Most models so far have had response $Y$ as continuous.
• Many responses in practice fall into the $YES/NO$ framework.
• Examples:
1. medical: presence or absence of cancer
2. financial: bankrupt or solvent
3. industrial: passes a quality control test or not

### Modelling probabilities¶

• For $0-1$ responses we need to model $$\pi(x_1, \dots, x_p) = P(Y=1|X_1=x_1,\dots, X_p=x_p)$$
• That is, $Y$ is Bernoulli with a probability that depends on covariates $\{X_1, \dots, X_p\}.$
• Note: $\text{Var}(Y) = \pi ( 1 - \pi) = E(Y) \cdot ( 1- E(Y))$
• Or, the binary nature forces a relation between mean and variance of $Y$.
• This makes logistic regression a Generalized Linear Model.

### Flu shot example¶

• A local health clinic sent fliers to its clients to encourage everyone, but especially older persons at high risk of complications, to get a flu shot in time for protection against an expected flu epidemic.
• In a pilot follow-up study, 50 clients were randomly selected and asked whether they actually received a flu shot. $Y={\tt Shot}$
• In addition, data were collected on their age $X_1={\tt Age}$ and their health awareness $X_2={\tt Health.Aware}$

### A possible model¶

• Simplest model $\pi(X_1,X_2) = \beta_0 + \beta_1 X_1 + \beta_2 X_2$
• Problems / issues:
• We must have $0 \leq E(Y) = \pi(X_1,X_2) \leq 1$. OLS will not force this.
• Ordinary least squares will not work because of relation between mean and variance.

### Logistic model¶

• Logistic model $\pi(X_1,X_2) = \frac{\exp(\beta_0 + \beta_1 X_1 + \beta_2 X_2)}{1 + \exp(\beta_0 + \beta_1 X_1 + \beta_2 X_2)}$
• This automatically fixes $0 \leq E(Y) = \pi(X_1,X_2) \leq 1$.
• Note: $\text{logit}(\pi(X_1, X_2)) = \log\left(\frac{\pi(X_1, X_2)}{1 - \pi(X_1,X_2)}\right) = \beta_0 + \beta_1 X_1 + \beta_2 X_2$

### Logistic curve¶

In [1]:
%%R  -h 600 -w 600
g <- function(p) {
return(log(p / (1 - p)))
}

g.inv <- function(x) {
return(exp(x) / (1 + exp(x)))
}

x = seq(g(0.01), g(0.99), length=200)
plot(x, g.inv(x), lwd=2, type='l', col='red', cex.lab=2)


### Logistic transform¶

In [2]:
%%R -h 600 -w 600
p = seq(0.01,0.99,length=200)
plot(p, g(p), lwd=2, type='l', col='red', cex.lab=2)


### Binary regression models¶

• Models $E(Y)$ as some increasing function of $\beta_0 + \beta_1 X_1 + \beta_2 X_2$.
• The logistic model uses the function $$f(x)=e^x/(1+e^x).$$
• Can be fit using Maximum Likelihood / Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares.
• For logistic regression, coefficients have nice interpretation in terms of odds ratios (to be defined shortly).

• What about inference?

### Criterion used to fit model¶

Instead of sum of squares, logistic regression uses deviance:

• $DEV(\mu| Y) = -2 \log L(\mu| Y) + 2 \log L(Y| Y)$ where $\mu$ is a location estimator for $Y$.
• If $Y$ is Gaussian with independent $N(\mu_i,\sigma^2)$ entries then $DEV(\mu| Y) = \frac{1}{\sigma^2}\sum_{i=1}^n(Y_i - \mu_i)^2$
• If $Y$ is a binary vector, with mean vector $\pi$ then $DEV(\pi| Y) = -2 \sum_{i=1}^n \left( Y_i \log(\pi_i) + (1-Y_i) \log(1-\pi_i) \right)$

### Deviance for logistic regression¶

• For any binary regression model, the deviance is: \begin{aligned} DEV(\beta| Y) &= -2 \sum_{i=1}^n \left( Y_i {\text{logit}}(\pi_i(\beta)) + \log(1-\pi_i(\beta)) \right) \end{aligned}

• For the logistic model, the RHS is: \begin{aligned} -2 \left[ (X\beta)^Ty + \sum_{i=1}^n\log \left(1 + \exp \left(\sum_{j=1}^p X_ij \beta_j\right) \right)\right] \end{aligned}

• The logistic model is special in that $\text{logit}(\pi(\beta))=X\beta$. If we used a different transformation, the first part would not be linear in $X\beta$.

In [3]:
%%R
flu.glm = glm(Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware, data=flu.table, family=binomial())
print(summary(flu.glm))

Call:
glm(formula = Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware, family = binomial(),
data = flu.table)

Deviance Residuals:
Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
-1.5522  -0.2962  -0.1124   0.4208   2.3244

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept)  -21.58458    6.41824  -3.363 0.000771 ***
Age            0.22178    0.07436   2.983 0.002858 **
Health.Aware   0.20351    0.06273   3.244 0.001178 **
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

Null deviance: 68.029  on 49  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 32.416  on 47  degrees of freedom
AIC: 38.416

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6



### Odds Ratios¶

• One reason logistic models are popular is that the parameters have simple interpretations in terms of odds $$ODDS(A) = \frac{P(A)}{1-P(A)}.$$
• Logistic model: $$OR_{X_j} = \frac{ODDS(Y=1|\dots, X_j=x_j+1, \dots)}{ODDS(Y=1|\dots, X_j=x_j, \dots)} = e^{\beta_j}$$
• If $X_j \in {0, 1}$ is dichotomous, then odds for group with $X_j = 1$ are $e^{\beta_j}$ higher, other parameters being equal.

### Rare disease hypothesis¶

• When incidence is rare, $P(Y=0)\approxeq 1$ no matter what the covariates $X_j$’s are.
• In this case, odds ratios are almost ratios of probabilities: $$OR_{X_j} \approxeq \frac{{\mathbb{P}}(Y=1|\dots, X_j=x_j+1, \dots)}{{\mathbb{P}}(Y=1|\dots, X_j=x_j, \dots)}$$
• Hypothetical example: in a lung cancer study, if $X_j$ is an indicator of smoking or not, a $\beta_j$ of 5 means for smoking vs. non-smoking means smokers are $e^5 \approx 150$ times more likely to develop lung cancer
• In flu example, the odds for a 45 year old with health awareness 50 compared to a 35 year old with the same health awareness are $$e^{-1.429284+3.647052}=9.18$$
In [4]:
%%R
logodds = predict(flu.glm, list(Age=c(35,45),Health.Aware=c(50,50)))
logodds

        1         2
-3.647052 -1.429284


The estimated probabilities are below, yielding a ratio of $0.1932/0.0254 \approx 7.61$.

In [5]:
%%R
exp(logodds)/(1+exp(logodds))

        1         2
0.0254056 0.1932103


### An algorithm to fit the model¶

1. Initialize $\widehat{\pi}_i = \bar{Y}, 1 \leq i \leq n$
2. Define $$Z_i = g(\widehat{\pi}_i) + g'(\widehat{\pi}_i) (Y_i - \widehat{\pi_i})$$
3. Fit weighted least squares model $$Z_i = \sum_{j=1}^p \beta_j X_{ij}, \qquad w_i = \widehat{\pi_i} (1 - \widehat{\pi}_i)$$
4. Set $\widehat{\pi}_i = \text{logit}^{-1} \left(\widehat{\beta}_0 + \sum_{j=1}^p \widehat{\beta}_j X_{ij}\right)$.
5. Repeat steps 2-4 until convergence. This is essentially Newton-Raphson to minimize deviance.

### Inference¶

One reason for introducing the IRLS procedure is to see what the approximate limiting distribution is.

• The IRLS procedure suggests using approximation $\widehat{\beta} \approx N(\beta, (X'WX)^{-1})$
• This allows us to construct CIs, test linear hypotheses, etc.
• Intervals formed this way are called Wald intervals.
In [6]:
%%R
center = coef(flu.glm)['Age']
SE = sqrt(vcov(flu.glm)['Age', 'Age'])
U = center + SE * qnorm(0.975)
L = center + SE * qnorm(0.025)
data.frame(L, center, U)

            L    center         U
Age 0.0760395 0.2217768 0.3675141


These are slightly different from what R will give you if you ask it for confidence intervals:

In [7]:
%%R
confint(flu.glm)

Waiting for profiling to be done...
2.5 %      97.5 %
(Intercept)  -38.0402235 -11.6669218
Age            0.1004533   0.4046856
Health.Aware   0.1026984   0.3595480


### Testing in logistic regression¶

What about comparing full and reduced model?

• For a model ${\cal M}$, $DEV({\cal M})$ replaces $SSE({\cal M})$.
• In least squares regression, we use $$\frac{1}{\sigma^2}\left( SSE({\cal M}_R) - SSE({\cal M}_F) \right) \sim \chi^2_{df_R-df_F}$$
• This is replaced with $$DEV({\cal M}_R) - DEV({\cal M}_F) \overset{n \rightarrow \infty}{\sim} \chi^2_{df_R-df_F}$$
• Resulting tests do not agree numerically with those coming from IRLS (Wald tests). Both are often used.
In [8]:
%%R
anova(glm(Shot ~ Health.Aware, data=flu.table, family=binomial()), flu.glm)

Analysis of Deviance Table

Model 1: Shot ~ Health.Aware
Model 2: Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware
Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance
1        48     49.279
2        47     32.416  1   16.863


We should compare this difference in deviance with a $\chi^2_1$ random variable.

In [9]:
%%R
1 - pchisq(16.863,1)

[1] 4.017719e-05


Let's compare this with the Wald test:

In [10]:
%%R
summary(flu.glm)

Call:
glm(formula = Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware, family = binomial(),
data = flu.table)

Deviance Residuals:
Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
-1.5522  -0.2962  -0.1124   0.4208   2.3244

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept)  -21.58458    6.41824  -3.363 0.000771 ***
Age            0.22178    0.07436   2.983 0.002858 **
Health.Aware   0.20351    0.06273   3.244 0.001178 **
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

Null deviance: 68.029  on 49  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 32.416  on 47  degrees of freedom
AIC: 38.416

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6



### Diagnostics¶

• Similar to least square regression, only residuals used are deviance residuals $r_i = \text{sign}(Y_i-\widehat{\pi}_i) \sqrt{DEV(\widehat{\pi}_i|Y_i)}.$
In [11]:
%%R
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
plot(flu.glm)

In [12]:
%%R
influence.measures(flu.glm)

Influence measures of
glm(formula = Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware, family = binomial(),      data = flu.table) :

dfb.1_  dfb.Age dfb.Hl.A    dffit cov.r   cook.d     hat inf
1  -0.017208  0.01543  0.01564 -0.01763 1.083 3.66e-05 0.01604
2  -0.102897  0.09560  0.10416  0.13491 1.102 2.24e-03 0.05231
3  -0.015043  0.01280  0.01442 -0.01556 1.081 2.85e-05 0.01454
4  -0.058889  0.02418  0.11920  0.28755 1.040 1.18e-02 0.05850
5  -0.103488  0.03853  0.17167  0.23475 1.144 6.94e-03 0.09789
6  -0.130919  0.11898  0.11098 -0.15203 1.109 2.86e-03 0.06040
7  -0.066734  0.06691  0.06003  0.07761 1.104 7.22e-04 0.04249
8  -0.043827  0.04399  0.03438 -0.04704 1.101 2.62e-04 0.03508
9  -0.018883  0.01881  0.01515 -0.01980 1.085 4.62e-05 0.01867
10 -0.112978  0.09695  0.13265  0.20841 1.076 5.68e-03 0.05526
11 -0.009578  0.09584 -0.04305  0.36490 1.004 2.08e-02 0.06318
12  0.020212 -0.13373  0.05812 -0.43566 0.979 3.20e-02 0.07059
13  0.192770 -0.50776  0.11790 -0.93778 1.040 1.63e-01 0.18972   *
14  0.372025 -0.47261 -0.14549  0.68814 0.902 1.02e-01 0.09827
15 -0.038716  0.03596  0.03351 -0.04035 1.095 1.93e-04 0.02970
16 -0.057484  0.06480  0.03735 -0.06892 1.121 5.65e-04 0.05393
17 -0.046412  0.13914 -0.10858 -0.47973 0.993 3.86e-02 0.08404
18 -0.029026  0.02499  0.03004  0.03257 1.090 1.25e-04 0.02416
19  0.111762  0.19947 -0.49074 -1.00669 0.979 2.10e-01 0.18084   *
20 -0.063893  0.05199  0.06246 -0.06972 1.105 5.80e-04 0.04169
21 -0.148884  0.11621  0.14276 -0.19327 1.096 4.76e-03 0.06199
22 -0.046451  0.03665  0.05220  0.05658 1.101 3.81e-04 0.03615
23 -0.058938  0.03695  0.06933 -0.07587 1.116 6.87e-04 0.05121
24 -0.046668  0.04039  0.04338 -0.04918 1.098 2.87e-04 0.03329
25  0.181347 -0.10844 -0.17866  0.43049 0.921 3.50e-02 0.05453
26 -0.009162  0.00759  0.00903 -0.00953 1.077 1.07e-05 0.00994
27 -0.085845  0.05982  0.10771  0.12539 1.116 1.91e-03 0.05923
28 -0.030981  0.02315  0.03287 -0.03466 1.094 1.42e-04 0.02750
29 -0.017942  0.01549  0.01840  0.01972 1.083 4.58e-05 0.01681
30 -0.140841  0.11498  0.13148 -0.17269 1.103 3.74e-03 0.06098
31 -0.160987  0.27877  0.03379  0.40526 1.178 2.18e-02 0.14807
32 -0.005600  0.00447  0.00572 -0.00592 1.074 4.12e-06 0.00685
33 -0.094999  0.09844  0.08375  0.11838 1.107 1.71e-03 0.05249
34 -0.003504  0.00331  0.00324  0.00365 1.071 1.57e-06 0.00442
35 -0.106728  0.08563  0.10366 -0.12263 1.111 1.83e-03 0.05562
36 -0.019690  0.01858  0.01689 -0.02026 1.085 4.84e-05 0.01820
37 -0.094324  0.08615  0.09622  0.11987 1.104 1.76e-03 0.05039
38  0.652043 -0.52099 -0.63916  0.73958 0.630 2.72e-01 0.05275   *
39 -0.019865  0.16852 -0.19502 -0.60555 0.998 6.42e-02 0.11145
40 -0.114652  0.12911  0.09175  0.15634 1.110 3.03e-03 0.06186
41 -0.094999  0.09844  0.08375  0.11838 1.107 1.71e-03 0.05249
42 -0.019865  0.16852 -0.19502 -0.60555 0.998 6.42e-02 0.11145
43 -0.069257 -0.23785  0.34314 -0.81279 1.267 9.58e-02 0.25544   *
44  0.050764 -0.06530  0.01674  0.34876 0.982 1.96e-02 0.05344
45 -0.079968  0.08479  0.05701 -0.09176 1.121 1.01e-03 0.05710
46 -0.038716  0.03596  0.03351 -0.04035 1.095 1.93e-04 0.02970
47 -0.000879 -0.00838  0.05023  0.31156 1.001 1.49e-02 0.05090
48  0.040334 -0.19110  0.07980 -0.50899 0.992 4.40e-02 0.08986
49 -0.025666  0.02050  0.02589 -0.02749 1.089 8.92e-05 0.02260
50 -0.016308  0.01570  0.01369 -0.01682 1.083 3.33e-05 0.01600


### Model selection¶

As the model is a likelihood based model, each fitted model has an AIC. Stepwise selection can be used easily …

In [13]:
%%R
step(flu.glm, scope=list(upper= ~.^2), direction='both')

Start:  AIC=38.42
Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware

Df Deviance    AIC
+ Age:Health.Aware  1   24.283 32.283
<none>                  32.416 38.416
- Age               1   49.279 53.279
- Health.Aware      1   56.078 60.078

Step:  AIC=32.28
Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware + Age:Health.Aware

Df Deviance    AIC
<none>                  24.283 32.283
- Age:Health.Aware  1   32.416 38.416

Call:  glm(formula = Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware + Age:Health.Aware, family = binomial(),
data = flu.table)

Coefficients:
(Intercept)               Age      Health.Aware  Age:Health.Aware
26.75944          -0.88151          -0.82239           0.02365

Degrees of Freedom: 49 Total (i.e. Null);  46 Residual
Null Deviance:	    68.03
Residual Deviance: 24.28 	AIC: 32.28


### Probit model¶

• Probit regression model: $$\Phi^{-1}({\mathbb{E}}(Y_i))= \sum_{j=1}^{p} \beta_j X_{ij}$$ where $\Phi$ is CDF of $N(0,1)$, i.e. $\Phi(t) = {\tt pnorm(t)}$.
• Complementary log-log model (cloglog): $$-log(-log({\mathbb{E}}(Y_i)) = \sum_{j=1}^{p} \beta_j X_{ij}.$$
• In logit, probit and cloglog ${\text{Var}}(Y_i)=\pi_i(1-\pi_i)$ but the model for the mean is different.
• Coefficients no longer have an odds ratio interpretation.
In [14]:
%%R
summary(glm(Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware, data=flu.table,

Call:
glm(formula = Shot ~ Age + Health.Aware, family = binomial(link = "probit"),
data = flu.table)

Deviance Residuals:
Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
-1.5471  -0.2883  -0.0648   0.4060   2.2955

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
(Intercept)  -12.35039    3.22797  -3.826 0.000130 ***
Age            0.12786    0.03887   3.289 0.001005 **
Health.Aware   0.11642    0.03237   3.596 0.000323 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

Null deviance: 68.029  on 49  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 32.076  on 47  degrees of freedom
AIC: 38.076

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 7



### Generalized linear models¶

Given a dataset $(Y_i, X_{i1}, \dots, X_{ip}), 1 \leq i \leq n$ we consider a model for the distribution of $Y|X_1, \dots, X_p$.

• If $\eta_i=g({\mathbb{E}}(Y_i)) = g(\mu_i) = \sum_{j=1}^p \beta_j X_{ij}$ then $g$ is called the link function for the model.
• If ${\text{Var}}(Y_i) = \phi \cdot V({\mathbb{E}}(Y_i)) = \phi \cdot V(\mu_i)$ for $\phi > 0$ and some function $V$, then $V$ is the called variance function for the model.
• Canonical reference Generalized linear models.

### Binary regression as GLM¶

• For a logistic model, $g(\mu)={\text{logit}}(\mu), \qquad V(\mu)=\mu(1-\mu).$
• For a probit model, $g(\mu)=\Phi^{-1}(\mu), \qquad V(\mu)=\mu(1-\mu).$
• For a cloglog model, $g(\mu)=-\log(-\log(\mu)), \qquad V(\mu)=\mu(1-\mu).$