import pymc as mc
mc.__version__
'3.0'
alpha = 2
beta = 2
n = 20
yes = 15
with mc.Model() as model:
p = mc.Beta('p',alpha,beta)
surv = mc.Binomial('surv',n=n,p=p,observed=yes)
survsim = mc.Binomial('survsim',n=n,p=p)
with model:
start = mc.find_MAP()
start
{'p': array(0.6190476210094416), 'survsim': array(10)}
with model:
step = mc.NUTS()
/nfs/adaptive/bedwards/anaconda/envs/pymc3/lib/python2.7/site-packages/theano/scan_module/scan_perform_ext.py:85: RuntimeWarning: numpy.ndarray size changed, may indicate binary incompatibility from scan_perform.scan_perform import *
with model:
trace = mc.sample(10000,step,start)
[-----------------100%-----------------] 10000 of 10000 complete in 8.6 sec
mc.traceplot(trace);