In [5]:
!date
import numpy as np, pandas as pd, StringIO
%matplotlib inline
import pymc3 as pm, theano.tensor as tt
Mon Jun 15 12:01:44 PDT 2015
In [6]:
data_csv = StringIO.StringIO("""home_team,away_team,home_score,away_score
Wales,Italy,23,15
France,England,26,24
Ireland,Scotland,28,6
Ireland,Wales,26,3
Scotland,England,0,20
France,Italy,30,10
Wales,France,27,6
Italy,Scotland,20,21
England,Ireland,13,10
Ireland,Italy,46,7
Scotland,France,17,19
England,Wales,29,18
Italy,England,11,52
Wales,Scotland,51,3
France,Ireland,20,22""")
In [7]:
df = pd.read_csv(data_csv)
teams = df.home_team.unique()
teams = pd.DataFrame(teams, columns=['team'])
teams['i'] = teams.index
df = pd.merge(df, teams, left_on='home_team', right_on='team', how='left')
df = df.rename(columns = {'i': 'i_home'}).drop('team', 1)
df = pd.merge(df, teams, left_on='away_team', right_on='team', how='left')
df = df.rename(columns = {'i': 'i_away'}).drop('team', 1)
observed_home_goals = df.home_score.values
observed_away_goals = df.away_score.values
home_team = df.i_home.values
away_team = df.i_away.values
num_teams = len(df.i_home.drop_duplicates())
num_games = len(home_team)
g = df.groupby('i_away')
att_starting_points = np.log(g.away_score.mean())
g = df.groupby('i_home')
def_starting_points = -np.log(g.away_score.mean())
In [8]:
model = pm.Model()
with pm.Model() as model:
# global model parameters
home = pm.Normal('home', 0, .0001)
tau_att = pm.Gamma('tau_att', .1, .1)
tau_def = pm.Gamma('tau_def', .1, .1)
intercept = pm.Normal('intercept', 0, .0001)
# team-specific model parameters
atts_star = pm.Normal("atts_star",
mu =0,
tau =tau_att,
shape=num_teams)
defs_star = pm.Normal("defs_star",
mu =0,
tau =tau_def,
shape=num_teams)
atts = pm.Deterministic('atts', atts_star - tt.mean(atts_star))
defs = pm.Deterministic('defs', defs_star - tt.mean(defs_star))
home_theta = tt.exp(intercept + home + atts[away_team] + defs[home_team])
away_theta = tt.exp(intercept + atts[away_team] + defs[home_team])
# likelihood of observed data
home_points = pm.Poisson('home_points', mu=home_theta, observed=observed_home_goals)
away_points = pm.Poisson('away_points', mu=away_theta, observed=observed_away_goals)
Cannot compute test value: input 0 (<TensorType(float32, matrix)>) of Op Dot22(<TensorType(float32, matrix)>, <TensorType(float32, matrix)>) missing default value
In [9]:
with model:
start = pm.find_MAP()
step = pm.NUTS(state=start)
trace = pm.sample(2000, step, start=start, progressbar=True)
pm.traceplot(trace)
[-----------------100%-----------------] 2000 of 2000 complete in 57.1 sec
/homes/abie/anaconda/envs/testenv/lib/python2.7/site-packages/theano/scan_module/scan_perform_ext.py:133: RuntimeWarning: numpy.ndarray size changed, may indicate binary incompatibility from scan_perform.scan_perform import *
