setwd('~/mlb')

require("lme4")
yr <- 2004
facs <- c("cnt", "stands", "umpire", "pitcher", "catcher", "batter", "throws", "home_batting")
model.file <- sprintf("csaa.%d.model.output.R", yr)

ifile <- sprintf("csaaFiles/csaa.in.%d.csv", yr)
din <- read.csv(ifile, stringsAsFactors=TRUE)
for ( fac in facs) {
    din[fac] <- as.factor(din[[fac]])
}

summary(din)

value.csaa.full <- glmer (cs ~ throws*stands + 
                          home_batting + 
                          cnt + 
                          (1| catcher) + 
                          (1|pitcher) + 
                          (1|umpire) + 
                          (1|batter), din, family=binomial(link = 'probit'), nAGQ = 0)

value.csaa.0 <- glmer(cs ~ (1|catcher),  din, family=binomial(link = 'probit'), nAGQ = 0)

model <- value.csaa.full
rr <- ranef(model)
rrc <- row.names(rr$catcher)
model.predictions <- pnorm(predict(model))
df <- data.frame(cbind(row.names(rr$catcher), rr$catcher, 1:length(rr$catcher)))
names(df) <- c("catcher", "value", "csaa")
for ( cname in rrc ) {
    cc <- din$catcher == cname
    model.predictions.with <- sum(pnorm(model.predictions[cc]))
    model.predictions.without <- sum(pnorm(model.predictions[cc] - df[df$catcher==cname,]$value))
    num.pa <- sum(cc)
    model.predictions.with
    model.predictions.without
    wowy <- (model.predictions.with - model.predictions.without)
    df[df$catcher==cname,]$csaa <- wowy/num.pa
    }
df.csaa.full <- df

model <- value.csaa.0
rr <- ranef(model)
rrc <- row.names(rr$catcher)
model.predictions <- pnorm(predict(model))
df <- data.frame(cbind(row.names(rr$catcher), rr$catcher, 1:length(rr$catcher)))
names(df) <- c("catcher", "value", "csaa")
for ( cname in rrc ) {
    cc <- din$catcher == cname
    model.predictions.with <- sum(pnorm(model.predictions[cc]))
    model.predictions.without <- sum(pnorm(model.predictions[cc] - df[df$catcher==cname,]$value))
    num.pa <- sum(cc)
    model.predictions.with
    model.predictions.without
    wowy <- (model.predictions.with - model.predictions.without)
    df[df$catcher==cname,]$csaa <- wowy/num.pa
    }
df.csaa.0 <- df



save(value.csaa.full, value.csaa.0, 
     df.csaa.full, df.csaa.0, 
     file=sprintf("csaa.%d.model.output.R", yr))

mean(model.predictions)