import pymc as mc

mc.__version__

alpha = 2
beta = 2
n = 20
yes = 15

p = mc.Beta('p',alpha,beta)
surv = mc.Binomial('surv',n=n,p=p,observed=True,value=yes)
surv_sim = mc.Binomial('surv_sim',n=n,p=p)

map_est = mc.MAP({'p':p,'surv':surv,'surv_sim':surv_sim})

map_est.fit(method='fmin_powell')

map_est.p.value

map_est.surv_sim.value

mc_est = mc.MCMC({'p':p,'surv':surv,'surv_sim':surv_sim})

mc_est.sample(10000,5000,2)

hist(mc_est.surv_sim.trace(),bins=range(0,21),normed=True)
figure()
hist(mc_est.p.trace(),bins=100,normed=True)
None